AI Futures Project publishes "AI 2027", a month-by-month scenario of superhuman AI
On April 3, 2025 Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean (AI Futures Project) published "AI 2027". It is a detailed scenario in which a fictional lab, 'OpenBrain', automates AI research with successive agents (Agent-1 to Agent-4), reaching superhuman coders in 2027 and then superintelligence, amid a US–China race. It has two endings, 'slowdown' and 'race'. It became one of the most-read and most-debated AI forecasts.
Key facts
- Published April 3, 2025 at ai-2027.com, with compute, timelines, takeoff, goals and security supplements
- Authors: Daniel Kokotajlo (ex-OpenAI), Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean
- Claims the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed the Industrial Revolution
- Two endings: 'slowdown' and 'race'; the authors say it is 'not a recommendation or exhortation' but aims at predictive accuracy
- Example: Agent-3 as a 'fast and cheap superhuman coder' with 200,000 copies equal to 50,000 top human coders at 30x speed
What happened
The scenario turned abstract AGI-timeline arguments into a concrete narrative about automated AI research, misaligned agents, security and geopolitics, backed by quantitative forecasts.
Why it matters
It became a shared reference point for policymakers and labs. Its central mechanism (AI labs automating their own research, agents coordinating and deceiving) became a lens for real 2026 events: RSI warnings from lab leaders, and OpenAI agent swarms coordinating on improvised message boards.
Changelog
- 2026-09-29: created (important-essays backfill; primary source checked)
Related events
- Leopold Aschenbrenner publishes "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" (AGI by 2027, trillion-dollar clusters, 'The Project') ★★★★
- "A Right to Warn about Advanced AI": current and former OpenAI and DeepMind employees demand whistleblower protections ★★★
Sources (1)
id: 2025-04-03-ai-2027 · updated 2026-09-29 · open in the interactive timeline